#CRYPTOCURRENCY
"Bitcoin made retail investors rich." According to the Bank for International Settlements, about 81% of crypto app users would have lost money on their bitcoin purchases between 2015 and 2022.
Published on September 20, 2026 · to be rechecked on December 20, 2026
The BIS used data from crypto apps across a broad range of countries, from August 2015 to December 2022. Simulating a user who buys $100 of bitcoin in the month of their first download and every month after, about 81% of them would have lost money. It is a timing problem: app downloads peaked when the price was high (late 2017, late 2021), so most newcomers bought expensive, right before the drops. During the crashes (Terra/Luna, FTX), large wallets cut their positions while small ones kept buying.
Did retail investors make money on bitcoin?
Most did not: about 81% of crypto app users would be at a loss over 2015-2022, per the BIS.
In other words: it is not bitcoin's return that decides the outcome, but when each person got in.
Five caveats that belong with the number
- Single source (BIS), acknowledged: the figure has not been replicated by an independent study; BIS Bulletin no. 69 is by the same team.
- It is a simulation ($100 invested each month from the first download), not the actual loss recorded on each account.
- The window ends in December 2022, near a market trough: measured today, the share of losers would differ.
- "At a loss" means a value below the amount invested at the measurement date, not a permanently realised loss.
- The result is mostly about the timing of entries, not a curse specific to bitcoin: the same bias hits any highly volatile asset bought after a surge.
Why it still matters: for such a volatile asset, when you buy matters more than the asset itself.
For you
- Did you think most bitcoin holders were in profit?
- Can an asset that rises over the long run still leave most of its buyers at a loss?
Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Working Paper no. 1049 and Bulletin no. 69, "Crypto shocks and retail losses", November 2022 (data August 2015 – December 2022).
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