#MARKETS & INVESTING
The four cloud giants will spend more this year than the GDP of most countries. Without yet knowing what it will deliver.
Published on August 10, 2026 · to be rechecked on November 1, 2026
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft have raised their capital expenditure guidance at every earnings release since 2024. CNBC put the combined total for the four at close to $700 billion for the year in February 2026 — mostly data centers, chips and power. After the first-quarter 2026 earnings season, the consensus was raised to about $725 billion, up from $365 billion expected a year earlier.
And after that?
By late April 2026, analyst projections for 2027 already exceeded $1 trillion for the big platforms alone.
In other words: the consensus doubled in twelve months. This isn't a forecast getting more precise, it's a forecast chasing reality.
Three caveats, because they matter
- These figures are analyst estimates aggregating guidance ranges. Depending on scope and date, you'll see 600, 700, 725 or 770 billion. The order of magnitude is solid, the decimal isn't.
- Capex isn't a loss. It's depreciated over several years, and part of it funds cloud businesses that are already profitable today.
- The debate is less about the amount than about the depreciation period assumed, and the growing use of debt to finance this spending.
Why it still matters: when spending of this size is financed with debt and depreciated on assumed useful lives, the risk shifts from the income statement to the balance sheet. That's where to look, not the headline of the press release.
For you
- What exact share of these four stocks does your World ETF hold?
- If you have exposure to AI, is that a choice or a side effect?
Source: CNBC, “Tech AI spending approaches $700 billion in 2026”, February 6, 2026; CNBC, “Big Tech capital expenditures now seen topping $1 trillion in 2027”, April 30, 2026.
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