#EMPLOYMENT & SOCIETY
"All of Europe has stalled." In Q2 2026, French GDP grew just 0.5% year on year, versus 1.0% in Germany and Italy and 2.7% in Spain.
Published on September 29, 2026 · to be rechecked on December 17, 2026
According to INSEE's economic outlook of 10 September 2026, French output shrank in the first quarter (−0.2%) then stalled in the spring (+0.0%). Over the same quarters, Germany posted +0.4% and +0.3%, Italy +0.3% and +0.2%, Spain +0.6% and +0.7%. For 2026 as a whole, INSEE forecasts +0.4% in France, a third of the growth of its euro-area neighbours or the UK.
Is the slowdown hitting all of Europe?
No: according to INSEE, activity held up better than expected in the first half in every major European country except France.
In other words: France's neighbours face the same energy shock, and their economies are still growing.
Four caveats that belong with the number
- The +0.4% annual figure is a forecast, not a measurement: INSEE puts the average error of its quarterly growth forecasts at 0.2 points, with no upward or downward bias.
- INSEE points to France-specific causes: a sharp downturn in public works linked to the municipal election cycle, a weaker labour market and less supportive fiscal policy.
- This summer's heatwaves would cost France 0.1 points of annual growth, mainly through lower farm output.
- Not everything is lagging: INSEE expects foreign trade to support French growth in 2026 (+0.3 points), driven by aerospace and shipbuilding.
Why it still matters: France's weak growth in 2026 can't be put down solely to the energy shock hitting all of Europe.
For you
- Did you think all of Europe was slowing as much as France?
- Which drag do you think weighs most on the French economy?
Source: INSEE, economic outlook "Vigilance orange sur la croissance", 10 September 2026.
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