#MARKETS & INVESTING
Bitcoin's volatility has halved in ten years: 87.9% in 2017, 43.7% over the last twelve months. It is still 3.4 times that of the S&P 500, against 3.7 times on average over the decade.
Published on September 1, 2026 · to be rechecked on March 1, 2027
The calculation covers 2,512 common trading days, from 1 September 2016 to 31 August 2026. Over the whole period, bitcoin shows an annualised volatility of 67.3% against 18.1% for the S&P 500, a ratio of 3.71. Bitcoin's volatility is indeed falling: 87.9% in 2017, 46.5% in 2023, 39.9% in 2025, 43.7% over the last twelve months. But the ratio is not: 3.42 over that last year, against 3.71 over ten years. The largest drawdown over the period reaches 83.1% for bitcoin, against 33.9% for the S&P 500. Prices are taken from two independent venues, Bitstamp and Coinbase, whose daily quotes differ by a median 0.009%.
Has bitcoin's volatility normalised with the arrival of institutional investors?
It has halved in absolute terms, but not relative to equities: the three-to-four-to-one ratio has held for ten years.
In other words: bitcoin moves less than it used to, but still as much as equities move little.
Five caveats, because they matter
- The years when the ratio narrows most — 2.32 in 2020, 2.14 in 2025 — are not calm years for bitcoin: they are turbulent years for equities. The convergence comes from the other side.
- Volatility is computed on US trading days. Bitcoin also trades at weekends, excluded here to make the two series comparable: its real volatility, all days included, is slightly higher.
- Volatility is not a risk of loss. It describes the amplitude of moves in both directions, not the probability of losing capital.
- 2026 is incomplete: it stops on 31 August and covers only eight months of trading.
- The prices used are exchange quotes, not a regulated index. They agree to within 0.009%, but none has the status of an official price.
Why it still matters: an asset's maturity is not read in its absolute volatility, but in its gap with the rest of the market — and that gap has not moved.
For you
- When you are told bitcoin has institutionalised, which measure is the claim built on: its volatility, or its gap with equities?
- Is a maximum drawdown of 83% compatible with the place this asset holds in your savings?
Source: reproducible Ze Finance calculation on daily BTC/USD closing prices from Bitstamp, cross-checked against Coinbase Exchange, and on the S&P 500 index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (series SP500) — annualised volatility of log returns, 1 September 2016 to 31 August 2026.
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